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Hillary fights slippage in Iowa

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has gone from presumptive Democratic presidential nominee to battling for every vote. One explanation for the tumble: She peaked too early.

"There has been a decided trend of slippage of support for Hillary Clinton," said pollster Scott Rasmussen, who has noticed that the New York Democrat's standing in his firm's survey is now at its lowest level since June.

"Part of it is when you build a big lead, it is always going to get smaller at some point," he said.

Mrs. Clinton's rivals see every poll in which she loses ground as an opportunity for an upset.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson's campaign sent an e-mail to supporters last week calling him "the only candidate with upward momentum."

"The other candidates — particularly Senator Clinton — are flattening out," said Dave Contarino, Mr. Richardson's chief of staff.

In one of the most direct fundraising appeals that she's made since joining the race in January, Mrs. Clinton on Monday told her supporters that it's a "dead heat in Iowa." She didn't cite several polls showing her second in Iowa, behind Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, but she didn't have to.

"With the Democratic nomination hinging on our actions over these next few weeks, we cannot take anything for granted or let up for a moment between now and then," she said, asking her fans to help her raise $1.25 million this week.

As the race has gotten more competitive, Mrs. Clinton has aggressively gone after her rivals, especially Mr. Obama, who has enjoyed an upward trajectory while her front-runner status eroded. His supporters say his momentum comes as he wins over voters who had been supporting a candidate whom they have known almost two decades.

"Senator Clinton's name has been before the public for over 15 years almost on a daily basis," said Rep. Steven R. Rothman, a New Jersey Democrat backing Mr. Obama.

"We knew once people met Senator Obama … they would gravitate to him over her and that's what's happening in Iowa and that is what's going to make him the Democratic nominee," he said. "People are finally giving in to allowing themselves to believe that he can win."

Mrs. Clinton once held such a solid lead over her rivals for the 2008 nod that pundits crowned her with the words "unstoppable" and "inevitable."

Now, her advantage has tightened in many of the early voting states, and she has fallen to second place in several Iowa polls.

A national Rasmussen poll released yesterday ran with the headline: "Clinton support falls to 35%, lowest since daily tracking began in July."

"I do think she has peaked," said Democratic Rep. Jan Schakowsky, an Obama backer from Illinois. "The momentum has shifted his way."

Rep. Bruce Braley, Iowa Democrat who is supporting former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, said that it's a tight race but that "there's a lot of room for movement" before Jan. 3, the date of the Iowa caucuses.

"Part of this perception issue has been that national press focusing on her so long as the inevitable candidate. The situation on the ground here in Iowa was always much different," he said.

Mrs. Clinton's advisers are talking up that the campaign started from behind, and her supporters privately say they can envision a scenario where she doesn't win Iowa but still marches on to secure the nomination.

Mr. Obama got a lot of attention by coming in first place — but within the margin of error — in two polls of Iowa caucusgoers recently, which the Republican National Committee (RNC) dubbed: "Clinton's Iowa implosion."

But the Clinton campaign was quick to note an Associated Press/Pew poll showing her five points ahead in Iowa and an Iowa State poll giving her a seven-point lead.

She still holds a 17-point national lead, according to an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics.com. But her once astronomical advantage seems unlikely to return.

So, has Mrs. Clinton peaked?

"No, not at all," responded senior Clinton adviser Ann Lewis.

"As you get closer to Election Day and as you get closer to these early primaries, polls will tighten," she said. "I am absolutely confident she will win the nomination. We've always said performing well in Iowa is our goal."

Clinton spokesman Mark Daley noted that Mr. Edwards has spent considerable time in Iowa since coming in second place in 2004's caucus and that Mr. Obama's home state is just across the river from eastern Iowa.

"When she started the race, she was in single digits," Mr. Daley said. "She is competing against someone from a neighboring state and someone who has been here five years campaigning."

It's an argument that Mrs. Clinton has used herself.

"I started very far behind," she told reporters last month at a stop in Iowa "We'll see what happens on January 3. That's the only count that really matters."

Mrs. Clinton says she pays no attention to polls — sort of.

On the campaign trail, she supplies Democrats skeptical of her electability with figures proving that she's beating Republicans in hypothetical matchups in several swing states. But she also told reporters, "I don't pay much attention" to the polls.

Mr. Rasmussen cautioned that Mrs. Clinton is very much "still a favorite for the nomination."

"It's not as comfortable as she'd like it to be, but she's still a favorite," he said, citing his New Hampshire poll. "I'd rather be seven points ahead than behind."

The RNC seems to have taken particular delight in the tightening of the race. A barrage of press releases recently has noted salacious adjectives in stories about polls, such as "Clinton Lead In SC: 'Dissolved' & 'Evaporated' " and "Clinton continues to lose ground in NH."

Her Democratic rivals aren't complaining.

"Who is responsible for her flattening in the polls? Senator Clinton and her campaign," said Chris Kofinis, a spokesman for Mr. Edwards.

Source:  The Washington Times

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