Hillary Has Not Sealed The Deal With Iowa Voters

January 2, 2008

She's the $100-million woman of American politics, a pre-ordained Democratic front-runner who has spent the past 12 months preparing for this very moment — a momentum-setting victory in the Iowa presidential caucus elections.

Hillary Clinton in Iowa

But as Hillary Clinton dashed yesterday across western Iowa on a four-stop campaign swing ahead of tomorrow's caucuses, the former first lady was confronting a worrying development her strategists believed unthinkable only two months ago.

She has not yet closed the deal with Iowa voters.

"I think it is very close in the whole state," said Vivian Dau, a precinct captain in the rural counties near Council Bluffs, where the New York Senator held a rally last evening.

"People who are skeptical of Hillary say they are concerned she can't beat the Republicans if she becomes the [Democratic] nominee. That's the thing I hear the most."

Despite mounting a late-December campaign blitz across Iowa's 99 counties, Mrs. Clinton's campaign was shocked yesterday by a new Des Moines Register poll that shows her trailing chief rival Barack Obama, and barely ahead of resurgent thirdplace candidate John Edwards.

The poll found Mr. Obama's support at 32% compared to Mrs. Clinton's 25%. Mr. Edwards, the former North Carolina senator, followed with 24%.

Mrs. Clinton's campaign immediately disputed the poll and cited two other surveys — one for CNN and another for Reuters — that showed her in a virtual three-way tie with Messrs. Obama and Edwards.

But the results portend a nail-biting tomorrow evening for Mrs. Clinton in Iowa, where anything but a victory would likely be viewed as a major setback at the start of the presidential primary season.

The New York Times quoted a Clinton donor who said the campaign was "totally taken aback" by the poll.

"Senator Clinton can survive a second-or even thirdplace showing in Iowa — as long as the gap behind the first-place finisher is not too large," said University of Iowa political scientist Peverill Squire.

The wildcard for Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards will be voter turnout. Iowa moved its vote to Jan. 3 this year to retain its first-in-the-nation status.

That decision forced Democratic and Republican candidates to spend New Year's Day competing for voters' attention against the traditional raft of NCAA college football bowl games on television.

"Voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference," said Mark Penn, Mrs. Clinton's pollster.

The Register poll took the steam of Mrs. Clinton's announcement that she had become the first candidate in Democratic party history to raise more than US$100-million. But with all that money in the bank — the entire Democratic field in 2004 raised just $128-million — rivals are questioning why Mrs. Clinton isn't doing better in Iowa.

"Do you understand how frightening it is to a campaign and a bunch of campaign workers and a candidate that have raised $100-million, to have somebody even with them, who's spending, whatever it is, a third, or a tenth?" said Mr. Edwards, who set a $40-million fundraising goal. "It scares them to death."

Mrs. Clinton's momentum has slowed over the past month amid increasingly sharp criticisms by Messrs. Obama and Edwards challenging her claims of being the most qualified in the race. In particular, Mrs. Clinton seized on the assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto as evidence of the need for someone with White House experience.

"You can't always tell what is coming at you. Our next president has to be ready for whatever awaits," she told 700 supporters in Council Bluffs, where she was joined by daughter Chelsea and 88-year-old mother Dorothy Rodham.

But Mr. Obama argues the former first lady's foreign policy experience was limited to social engagements at the White House with the spouses of visiting world leaders.

Source: National Post

Posted by Hillary · Filed Under 2008, Hillary Clinton, News, Top Story

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Hillary Has Not Sealed The Deal With Iowa Voters

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