Hillary Clinton’s negative rating rivals Santorum’s

March 13, 2008

New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has something in common with former Republican Sen. Rick Santorum. A large percentage of Pennsylvania voters dislike both of them.

In fact, greater percentages of voters here have consistently viewed Mrs. Clinton unfavorably than Mr. Santorum, according to a review of data from a respected statewide poll.

The data could buttress arguments by Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign that Mrs. Clinton, if she wins the Democratic presidential nomination, might not be able to defeat Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in the Keystone State.

“I think Pennsylvania’s in play if it’s McCain against Clinton,” said Ed Mitchell, a local Democratic political consultant who has contributed to Mr. Obama’s campaign.

No Democrat has won the presidency without winning Pennsylvania in the general election since Harry Truman in 1948, when the state still had more Republicans.

“She’s got a problem with core Republican voters and swing voters that she’s going to have to deal with,” said G. Terry Madonna, Ph.D., who runs Franklin & Marshall’s Center for Politics and Public Affairs, which regularly polls state voters.

Swing voters, especially, can be crucial to winning national elections in Pennsylvania.

A Franklin & Marshall/Times-Shamrock Newspapers poll in mid-February showed 43 percent of voters had an unfavorable opinion of Mrs. Clinton, the same as a month ago and three percentage points lower than a year ago.

Of course, polls are only snapshots of sentiment at the time they are taken. But consistent unfavorability ratings above 40 percent are dangerous for a candidate.

“The negatives (unfavorability) prevent you from growing (in popularity),” Dr. Madonna said.

By comparison, Mr. Santorum’s unfavorability rose from 32 percent in September 2005 to 37 percent the same month of 2006 and 46 percent the week before he was trounced by Democrat Bob Casey.

Mr. Obama’s unfavorability rating was at 27 percent and Mr. McCain’s at 26 percent, both up from 15 percent a year ago.

There is one big difference between Mr. Santorum and Mrs. Clinton, Dr. Madonna said. Throughout his campaign against Mr. Casey, Mr. Santorum trailed by double digits in polls.

Mrs. Clinton, and Mr. Obama for that matter, actually match up well against Mr. McCain in the Franklin & Marshall poll.

In that poll, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain both had the support of 46 percent of voters. Mr. McCain was up on Mr. Obama 44 percent to 43 percent, a virtual tie because of potential statistical errors.

That was before Mrs. Clinton won in Ohio and Texas, watershed events in the view of Mark Aronchick, a national and Pennsylvania co-chairman of finance for her campaign.

Mr. Aronchick thinks the February unfavorability rating is irrelevant. He pointed to the enthusiasm of crowds at rallies this week for Mrs. Clinton in Scranton, Harrisburg and Philadelphia, and her improved performance among independent and moderate Republican voters in Ohio and Texas. She and Mr. Obama did about equally well in both categories in both states, according to an Edison/Mitofsky exit poll for major television networks.

“She’s on a surge. This campaign is … becoming a major cause,” he said, ascribing a quality to Mrs. Clinton’s campaign that so far has been mostly ascribed to Mr. Obama’s. “I guarantee you her favorability numbers are very high now in Pennsylvania.”

The Franklin & Marshall poll from February showed 41 percent of state voters had a favorable opinion of Mrs. Clinton, while 46 percent felt that way about Mr. Obama and 45 percent about Mr. McCain.

As for the contest with Mr. McCain, Mr. Aronchick said the election tide favors any Democratic nominee. Democrats, he said, are adding voters to their registration totals in far larger numbers than Republicans because their ideas are more in tune with American voters.

In a conference call with reporters Wednesday, David Plouffe, Mr. Obama’s campaign manager, said Mr. Obama remains more likely to attract Republicans and independent voters.

“In survey after survey, it is very clear that Sen. Clinton is a flawed nominee. She loses to John McCain in battleground states because she does so poorly with independent voters,” Mr. Plouffe said. “She is not going to put as many states in play.”

In the April 22 state primary, Mrs. Clinton’s unfavorability rating might not matter. Among Democratic voters, three-fifths have favorable opinions of both her and Mr. Obama.

Source: The Times-Tribune

Posted by Hillary · Filed Under Hillary Clinton, News, Polls & Surveys

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One Response to “Hillary Clinton’s negative rating rivals Santorum’s”

Anna on March 19th, 2008 8:37 pm

Way to show your favorites. “Should Hilary Quit”, the freaky-eyed pictures of her..ect. Be a little more equal- I mean this site is called “Against Hillary”. I bet you have a “Time Until Bush is Gone countdown” dont u?

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Hillary Clinton’s negative rating rivals Santorum’s

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