Hillary Clinton’s history lesson

May 28, 2008

By Francis Wilkinson

Hillary Clinton traveled to Florida last week with a clear goal: to stoke resentment about the state's outlaw status in the Democratic campaign and draw a parallel between her losing battle in the Democratic primary of 2008 and the misery visited on Florida Democrats in the general election of 2000.

"We still have nightmares about 2000 and what happened in that election," she told a crowd at a retirement community. "It was wrong." The message from Clinton, who had previously supported the move to penalise Florida and Michigan in order preserve the preeminence of early voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire, wasn't subtle: another election was being stolen in the Sunshine State.

In fact, Florida Democrats have seen something eerily similar to this year's Clinton-Obama slog. But it took place two years after Bush v Gore become such a touchstone for Democratic outrage.

The 2002 Florida Democratic gubernatorial primary pitted an experienced woman with a strong and passionate base of support and a national reputation against an audacious, younger upstart making his first run for office. Early polls suggested the race between former US attorney-general Janet Reno and Tampa lawyer Bill McBride was a lopsided joke. Reno led by 50 percentage points or more.

For a while, Reno's renown masked her campaign's deep flaws. Meantime, over the course of a long campaign, McBride raised significantly more money than Reno and followed a smart strategy devised by pollster Geoff Garin, who, as it happens, now advises Hillary Clinton. (Along with my partner at the time, David Doak, I made McBride's television ads.)

On Election night, McBride appeared to have won a huge upset, but the results were so close that he went to bed without declaring victory. He didn't want to offend Reno or her voters (or the truth). Reno, suffering political shock, refused for more than a week to concede. Instead, she summoned the ghosts of 2000, asking for a review of votes in her stronghold of Miami-Dade.

"The right to vote is one of the most precious possessions we have," Reno said at a news conference. "I think the first thing we must do is get the votes counted."

Heard anything like that lately?

Just as Clinton's nomination was inevitable, so, too, was Reno's. The only thing that went awry was the actual voting. As Reno dug in her heels, questioning the validity of the result, she undermined McBride among an electorate that didn't know him well to begin with. Meantime, she steered her voters toward an obvious conclusion: someone had stolen the election. Since the victor's crown was sitting atop McBride's head, her angry supporters didn't have much trouble identifying the usurper.

With Reno refusing to step aside, McBride's fundraising ground to a halt. Instead of coming out of the primary a giant slayer, riding momentum and money into the general election, his campaign was mired in doubt. McBride's eventual margin of victory was 4,800 votes. But he emerged badly damaged. Even after Reno's concession, and a half-hearted feint toward party unity, much of McBride's political energy was directed to shoring up the fragmented Democratic base, leaving him incapable of mounting an effective challenge to the incumbent Republican governor, Jeb Bush. With just two months between the primary and general elections, he was never able to rally Reno's skeptical base to his cause. Governor Bush was reelected in a landslide.

In her own campaign to defy the harsh reality of "the math," Hillary Clinton continues to careen between conciliation and party unity on one side, and thinly veiled threats, like her comments in Florida, to blow up the Democratic Party on the other. Her political agenda continues to be the subject of intense speculation. Some say she is simply in denial. Others believe she is fighting a noble crusade in behalf of women everywhere. There is also reason to suspect she is trying to force her way onto the Democratic ticket or, in the darker version, to sabotage Obama so she can supplant him as the nominee in 2012 (if not sooner).

Of course, it's possible that all the political and psychological threads are so densely tangled that even Clinton herself can't read her own mind. But I wonder if Janet Reno can..

Source:  The Guardian

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