Clinton doesn’t seem to be high on Obama’s list

July 29, 2008

By Adam Nagourney

IHT - When Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton abandoned her bid for the presidency and endorsed Senator Barack Obama in June, she made clear that she was interested in becoming his running mate, and Obama and his associates signaled respectfully that she would get full consideration.

But there is mounting evidence that Obama's interest in Clinton for the post has faded considerably — if, in fact, she ever really was a strong contender to be on the ticket with him.

In conversations, Obama's advisers discuss Clinton's role at the Democratic convention next month in a way that suggests they are not thinking of her arriving in Denver as Obama's running mate.

When Obama appeared Sunday on "Meet the Press" on NBC he offered a description of the kind of person he was looking for — hinting that it would not be someone who was identified strongly with Washington, a choice that would appear to leave out Clinton — that his associates said reflected the lack of serious thought being given to Clinton for the post.

The feeling goes both ways. Clinton has told associates in recent days that she thinks there is little chance Obama will pick her and that she views the public pronouncements by some of Obama's aides that she is under review as nothing more than a courtesy.

She has not been asked to provide written documentation to the committee vetting the background of candidates for Obama. Although Clinton probably needs less flyspecking than almost anyone else in the field — considering how long she has been in public life and how intensively her past has been examined — the silence from that corner is being taken by Clinton's advisers as evidence of where she stands on Obama's vice presidential list.

Clinton's boosters have not given up. "If he picks Hillary he gets her 18 million supporters and we would win in a cakewalk and control the White House for 16 years," Terry McAuliffe, who was the chairman of her campaign, said Sunday in an interview.

Yet even McAuliffe, in a separate interview on MSNBC on Monday morning, seemed to acknowledge the diminished chances of Clinton's ending up on the ticket when he said he expected her role at the convention to consist of delivering a speech on Tuesday night. (If history is any guide, the vice presidential candidate speaks on Wednesday night; Obama's advisers said they had not decided when Clinton would speak.)

By every indication, Obama has not reached a decision. Given the political strength Clinton exhibited as she dueled with Obama to the end of the primary season, it is conceivable — say, if polls over the next few weeks suddenly show him struggling against Senator John McCain — that Obama would turn to her. But his associates describe that as unlikely, saying that for a variety of reasons, Obama is not looking to have her as a running mate or serving with him in the White House.

Obama's aides are confident that the passions of the primary season have given way to a more pragmatic view among Clinton's supporters and that Obama would not risk a major backlash from women or other constituencies associated with her if the vice presidential slot goes to someone else.

But the Obama camp has done little in public to prepare Clinton supporters for the increasing likelihood that she will not be on the ticket. There is no shortage of speculation among Clinton's supporters that she is very much in the running as Obama begins closing in on a decision.

The list of potential candidates includes Senators Evan Bayh of Indiana and Joseph Biden Jr. of Delaware, as well as Governor Tim Kaine of Virginia, and other names of varying degrees of plausibility. The Democratic convention begins Aug. 25 in Denver, and Obama was said to be considering an announcement the week before, although aides said it could be earlier.

The arguments for picking Clinton have always been highly pragmatic, based more on electoral politics than anything else, as McAuliffe suggested in pointing to the vote-getting power she had exhibited. (For what it is worth, some of McCain's advisers said they viewed Clinton as the single strongest candidate Obama could pick for those same reasons.)

Those arguments have not held much sway with Obama or his inner circle. They have indicated that any political benefits gained by putting Clinton on the ticket would be outweighed by the costs.

Obama's advisers say that a central message of his campaign — that he would represent a break from the way politics are conducted in Washington — would be tarnished by the simple act of linking himself to the family that has dominated Democratic politics since Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992.

Source: International Herald Tribune

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